January 2014 - NOTE: (Updated Daily Space Weather Alerts and EMP Related News Can Be Found Below This Special Report)
2014 JANUARY 28, 2014 - UPDATE EMP REPORT SPECIAL ON G2 CLOUD PREDICTIONS
JANUARY 23, 2014 - UPDATE EMP REPORT SPECIAL ON G2 CLOUD PREDICTIONS
JANUARY 17, 2014 - UPDATE EMP REPORT SPECIAL ON G2 CLOUD - (UPDATED PREDICTION OF)
JANUARY 15, 2014 UPDATE EMP REPORT SPECIAL - G2 CLOUD TRAJECTORY UPDATE FROM CORNELL UNIVERSITY -
Abstract: The discovery of the gas cloud G2 on a near-radial orbit about Sgr A* has prompted much speculation on it origin. In this Letter, we propose that G2 formed out the debris stream produced by the removal of mass from the outer envelope of a nearby giant star. We perform hydrodynamical simulations of the returning tidal debris stream with cooling, and ﬁnd that the stream condenses into clumps that fall to Sgr A* approximately once per decade. We propose that one of these clumps is the observed G2 cloud, with the rest of the stream being detectable at lower Brγ emissivity along a trajectory that would trace from G2 to the star that was partially disrupted. By simultaneously ﬁtting the orbits of S2, G2, and ∼2,000 candidate stars, and by ﬁxing the orbital plane of each candidate star to G2 (as is expected for a tidal disruption), we ﬁnd that the late-type star S1-34 has an orbit that is compatible with the notion that it was tidally disrupted to produce G2. If S1-34 is indeed the star that was disrupted, it last encountered Sgr A* in the late 18th century, and will likely be disrupted again in several hundred years. However, while S1-34’s orbit is compatible with the giant disruption scenario given its measured position and proper motion, its radial velocity is currently unknown. If S1-34’s radial velocity is measured to be compatible with a disruptive orbit, it would strongly suggest that a tidal disruption of S1-34 produced G2.
This is a further update about the G2 cloud which is observed to be on a high-speed trajectory toward the Galactic core; see Figure 1. The evidence now looks almost certain that the G2 cloud contains an embedded star (or stars). Eckart, et al., 2013 have detected a K band infrared image of the cloud and have concluded that their results indicate that the cloud contains a star having a mass somewhere between one solar mass and 30 solar masses (Eckart, 2013a; Eckart, 2013b). They refer to the G2 cloud as a DSO, or “Dusty S-cluster Object.”
Figure 1. Trajectory of the G2 cloud as it nears the Galactic core.
About 45% of all one solar mass stars are observed to have a binary companion star, about 60% of all 10 solar mass stars are seen to have stellar companions, and about 75% of all 30 solar mass stars have companion stars. So for the stated mass range for the G2 cloud star, there is about a 50:50 chance that it will have a stellar companion, and if it doesn’t have a stellar companion, there still remains about a 100% chance that it will have a giant planet or brown dwarf companion. So the situation is beginning to look pretty serious.
Papers published so far on the G2 cloud have failed to discuss the possibility that an embedded star might carry with it a companion. And yet this is the most important aspect to consider in this upcoming cloud-core encounter, because tidal stripping of a companion star and entrainment into the Galactic core would almost certainly trigger a core explosion with consequent prompt superwave impact on our solar system.
Whether or not the companion star is stripped away will depend on whether it orbits outside or inside the primary star’s L1 Lagrange point, the point of no return beyond which orbiting dust, planets, or companion stars come under the influence of the Galactic core’s dominant gravitational pull. The L1 point is located close to the star on the side facing the Galactic core; see Figure 2. If a companion star orbits its primary star at a distance closer than this L1 point distance, it will remain under the influence of the primary’s gravitational pull and remain bound in a binary orbit. If not, it will enter the core’s Roche lobe and get sucked in.
Figure 2. Illustration of the L1 Lagrange Point in relation to the G2 star.
The statistics do not look to favor the companion’s survival. Binary stars are separated from one another on average by about 8 astronomical units (AU), although they can be located as close as 0.1 AU in very close binaries. By comparison, Eckart, et al. note that when the G2 cloud is at periastron distance, and if its embedded primary star has a mass of one solar mass, its L1 Lagrange point will be positioned about 0.1 AU away; if the embedded star is an 8 solar mass star, its L1 point will lie further out, about 0.5 AU away; and if the cloud contains a 30 solar mass star, its Lagrange point will lie still further out, about 1 AU away. So with the Lagrange point being so close to the primary star (0.1 to 1 AU), the chances are that when the G2 cloud makes its closest approach to Sgr A*, the companion star will be orbitting outside the L1 Lagrange point and within the Galactic core’s Roche Lobe. This means that it will almost certainly be stripped off and end up getting pulled into the core. If the tidally stripped body is of lower mass, such as an Earth sized planet or jovian planet instead of a star, then it is likely that the triggered core outburst will be much smaller. How large or small cannot be said. There is no way to predict.
At periastron, its closest approach to the Galactic core, the G2 cloud will be somewhere between 125 and 200 AU from the core following the highly eccentric orbit shown in Figure 1. At its closest approach, it will come about as close to the core as the S2 star, when that star is at periastron. Since S2 makes has an orbital period of a bit over 15 years, it has made many close approaches to the core in the past centuries with no serious consequences. Since no outburst activity was observed when the S2 star passed close to the core in 2002, one might ask whether we have anything to worry about from the G2 cloud. For the S2 star to make repeated passages of the Galactic core with no noticeable consequences, we may conclude that it is a single star and that any companion objects such as stars or planets were long ago stripped away by the core’s gravitational field. In fact, it is possible that S0 is the remnant of an inbound star system which had its companion mass stripped off some time in the past and resulting a core explosion. For example, it may have triggered one of the 13 minor core outbursts that took place in the past 5300 years. The G2 cloud, however, is making its first pass of the core, and the statistics are stacked in favor of it having a companion.
Tidal stripping will be most likely begin to occur when the G2 cloud has reached its periastron, point of closest approach to the Galactic core. Based on predictions of various authors, this is most likely to occur sometime between March and May of 2014; see Table 1 Once we see the G2 cloud divide and a mass split off, we will only have two to three weeks before the mass reaches the core surface and triggers an explosion. So we should keep close watch should something be about to happen. Credit: http://etheric.com/g2-cloud-likely-contain-star-increased-chance-core-explosion/
This animation shows observations of the Galactic Center
with and without Adaptive Optics, illustrating the resolution gain.
**2014 EMP REPORT SPECIAL - ADDITIONAL G2 CLOUD TRAJECTORY UPDATE FROM CORNELL UNIVERSITY WEBSITE
(It should be noted these simulations are in 3D - we should also assume additional dimensional simulations) -
**PREVIOUS EMP SPECIAL REPORTS ON THE G2 CLOUD TRAJECTORY:
12/21 - EMP REPORT SPECIAL: The most important information you may ever read my Friends - G2 Cloud Predicted to Approach Twice as Close to GC (Galactic Center) - There have been new developments in the story on the G2 Cloud. Recent observations of the G2 cloud made in the near infrared at the Keck Observatory indicate that the cloud will reach its closest approach to the Galactic center around mid March of 2014 instead of June of this year. Also the new findings indicate that G2′s orbit will take the cloud twice as close to the GC than previously thought. The distance of closest approach is now predicted to be 130 AU rather than 266 AU, as previously thought. If the star embedded in the G2 cloud is a binary system or contains a single star with orbiting planets, there is the danger that the Galactic core may tidally strip away the lower mass companion star or one or more companion planets at the time the stellar system is at orbital pericenter closest to the core. In that case the consequences could be catastrophic. For example, if an entire 100 jupiter mass brown dwarf were to plunge into the Galactic core in one sudden event, it is almost certain that it could jump-start the core into an active Seyfert state and generate a potentially lethal superwave. -
Credit #1: http://starburstfound.org/superwaveblog/?m=201305
Credit #5: http://physicsworld.com/cws/article/news/2013/jun/06/monster-gas-cloud-could-unveil-milky-way-s-black-hole-hub
Additional Publications on G2 and Sgr A can be found here: http://arxiv.org/find/all/1/all:+g2/0/1/0/all/0/1
**Additional Readings are the Higher Levels of Learning by Wes Penre (we have no affiliation with this gentleman, but he speaks the truth) Note: The Third Level of Learning discusses the galactic superwave further and is closest to the time frame of the now, but I encourage reading of all levels of learning...knowledge and wisdom are power). Website: www.wespenre.com
02/25 - X-FLARE! Returning sunspot AR1967 unleashed a powerful X5-class solar flare on Feb. 25th at approximately 00:50 UTC. This is the most intense flare of 2014 so far, and one of the most intense of the current solar cycle. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash: (can be viewed today at spaceweather.com) Although this flare is impressive, its effects are mitigated by the location of the blast site, which is near the sun's southeastern limb, not facing Earth. Strong geomagnetic storming is not expected at this time. The source of the flare is long-lived sunspot AR1967, now beginning its third trip across the Earthside of the sun. This region was an active producer of flares during its previous transits, and it looks like the third time will be little different. By tradition, sunspots are renumbered each time they return, so AR1967 will soon have a new designation. (Update: The new name of this sunspot is AR1990.) Credit: Spaceweather.com
02/20 - 2014-02-20 09:39 UTC 10 MeV Proton event from M3 Flare - An M3 X-ray flare (NOAA Scale R1-Minor radio blackout) occurred at 20/0756 UTC (20/0356 EST) from Region 1976, located near the solar west limb. This flare also produced a 10 MeV proton event that exceeded the 10 pfu threshold at 20/0855 UTC (0455 EST). Potential Impacts from the proton event include: Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies. We are still experiencing elevated geomagnetic storm levels (Currently G2-Moderate) with enhancements likely to continue for the next few hours. Tune in here for updates. Credit: SWPC
02/19 - 2014-02-19 05:08 UTC G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storming Underway - Earth is currently under the influence of a coronal mass ejection (CME) and G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storming has been observed. This is likely the result of what was expected to be a near miss from an event originally observed on the 14th. This CME has a fairly well-organized magnetic field structure so continued G1 (Minor) to G2 (Moderate) storming is certainly possible. Stay tuned for updates as this event unfolds. Credit: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/
02/04 - CHANCE OF FLARES: NOAA forecasters estimate an 80% chance of M-flares and a 50% chance of X-flares on Feb. 4th. The source would be giant sunspot AR1967 - (photo can be viewed at spaceweather.com). shown here seething with activity in a photo from amateur astronomer Sergio Castillo of Inglewood, California - In Castillo's photo, a pair of magnetic filaments reaches out from the heart of the active region, where multiple dark cores big enough to swallow Earth are crackling with flares. "The activity in this region is just amazing," says Castillo. AR1967 has an unstable 'delta-class' magnetic field that harbors energy for strong flares and CMEs. Any eruptions today will surely be Earth-directed as the active region crosses the center of the solar disk. Credit: Spaceweather.com
02/04 - APPROACHING CME: NOAA forecasters estimate a 25% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on Feb. 4th when a CME is expected to sideswipe Earth's magnetic field. Credit: Spaceweather.com
02/02 - BIG SUNSPOTS FACE EARTH: A pair of large sunspots is directly facing Earth. The larger of the two, AR1967, has a 'delta-class' magnetic field that harbors energy for powerful solar flares. AR1967 is wider than the planet Jupiter and its primary dark cores are big enough to swallow Earth many times over. The scale of the sunspot makes it an easy target for backyard solar telescopes. As shown in the gallery, astronomers around the world are snapping pictures. The active region is already crackling with M-class solar flares. NOAA forecasters estimate a 15% chance of even stronger X-flares during the next 24 hours. Any eruptions will be squarely Earth directed. Credit: Spaceweather.com
02/02 - CHANCE OF STORMS TODAY: NOAA forecasters estimate a 45% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on Feb. 2nd in response to a glancing blow from a CME. Credit: Spaceweather.com
01/26 - EMP SPECIAL REPORT -
Credit: Turner Radio Network
Please Note: This is a developing story, and we cannot conclude just yet this is a rogue "planet" or some other form of rogue space rock. Please stay tuned for updates as we further our observations through our resources.
01/25 - BRIGHT, NEARBY SUPERNOVA: Approximately 12 million years ago, a white dwarf star in galaxy M82 exploded. A few days ago, light from the supernova finally reached Earth. Amateur astronomers can see it through backyard telescopes as a fireball of magnitude +11. Indeed, it is so bright that small telescopes can be used to study the spectrum of the blast. Data shows a strong absorption line corresponding to ionized silicon. Silicon is one of the products of fusing carbon and oxygen, and a telltale sign that this is a Type 1a supernova explosion. Type 1a supernovas are famous in part because they led to the discovery of Dark Energy in the universe. (And, yes, we know that "Dark Energy" is shorthand for "we don't know what's going on."). Although it is 12 million light years away, M82 is considered to be a next-door neighbor of the Milky Way. Indeed, this is the nearest supernova to Earth since SN 1993J was observed 21 years ago. The relative proximity of the blast makes it an attractive target for astronomers to study. Light curves from previous Type 1a supernovas suggest that the fireball could continue to brighten for the next two weeks. If you have a GOTO telescope, this evening command it to slew to the "cigar galaxy" or "M82," and watch the explosion unfold. Credit: Spaceweather.com
(I would also like to note this may be why we are continuing to see an increase in newly discovered NEOs and why we are receiving little notice of these NEOs.) Stay tuned for updates.
Some additional reading material:
01/24 - SUPERNOVA! Approximately 12 million years ago, a white dwarf star in the galaxy M82 exploded. This week, light from the distant supernova finally reached Earth. Amateur astronomers can see it through backyard telescopes as a fireball of magnitude +11.2 in one of the galaxy's dusty spiral arms. Although it is 12 million light years away, M82 is considered to be a next-door neighbor of the Milky Way. Indeed, this is the nearest supernova to Earth since SN 1993J was famously observed 21 years ago. The relative proximity of the blast makes it an attractive target for astronomers to study. Light curves from previous supernovas of this type suggest that the fireball could continue to brighten for the next two weeks. If you have a GOTO telescope, this evening command it to slew to the "cigar galaxy" or "M82," and watch the explosion unfold. Credit: Spaceweather.com
More Information on M82 and SN Event
01/23 - CHANCE OF STORMS: NOAA forecasters estimate a 25% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on Jan. 23rd in response to a glancing blow from a CME. Credit: spaceweather.com
01/20 - SOLAR SECTOR BOUNDARY CROSSING: High-latitude auroras are possible on Jan. 21st when Earth crosses through a fold in the heliospheric current sheet. This is called a "solar sector boundary crossing," and NOAA forecasters estimate a 25% chance of polar geomagnetic storms when it occurs. Credit: Spaceweather.com
Heliospheric Current Sheet - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heliospheric_current_sheet
Some Additional Publications on previous "Solar Sector Boundary Crossings" ( I would also recommend independent research on the effects of Solar Sector Boundary Crossing on Earth since no further information was provided on this Friends...(except for the SWPC to inform us that "system maintenance will be taking place January 25, so we will have limited data available to us at this time"...)
01/18 - SUNSPOT AROUND THE CORNER: A sunspot approaching from just behind the sun's southeastern limb is crackling with solar flares. The explosions are registering C2 to C8 on the Richter Scale of Flares even though they are partially eclipsed by the edge of the sun. In Athens, Greece, amateur astronomer Peter Desypris photographed the flying debris from one of the explosions - "Indeed, something big appears to be on the way," says Desypris. The sun's rotation is slowly turning the active region toward Earth. During the weekend its core should emerge into plain view for a better evaluation of its flare-producing potential. Stay tuned for updates. Credit: spaceweather.com
01/18 - CHANCE OF STORMS: A minor CME expected to hit Earth's magnetic field on Jan. 17th is late, but NOAA forecasters still think it is coming. They estimate a 40% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on Jan. 18th in response to the tardy impact. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.(Note: an R2 blackout event was recorded at the SPWC - however no information is provided by NOAA on the event timeline for this?) http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/warnings_timeline.html
01/13 - EMP REPORT SPECIAL - ATTENTION FRIENDS - CIVIL DEFENSE WARNING FOR METEORS: "DROP and COVER IF YOU SEE SUDDEN EXTREMELY BRIGHT LIGHT ISSUED TO PUBLIC JANUARY 13, 2014 - (EMP SPECIAL REPORT will update you as we have more information). Civil Defense authorities are warning Americans to DROP AND COVER if they see a sudden, extremely bright light. Apparently, planet Earth is entering one of two debris fields from the recent Comet ISON and there is a high probability of meteors from the Comet tail, coming into our atmosphere and detonating. Doctors are warning that the shock wave from such a detonation can kill you. Read More on This Breaking Story at http://www.turnerradionetwork.com/news/195-pat
01/10 - 2014-01-10 01:15 UTC Modest Start to Geomagnetic Storm
The coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the R3 (Strong) Solar Flare Radio Blackout event from January 7th is now affecting Earth but the resulting geomagnetic storm is off to a modest start, with no substantial storming occurring thus far. The initial structure of this CME has been relatively weak in strength, but that said, it generally takes on the order of 24 hours or more for the full event to transpire and stronger storming is certainly still possible. The ongoing Solar Radiation Storm, still just above the S2 (Moderate) threshold, continues it slow decay toward background levels. Additionally, Region 1944 is showing some signs of decay and no significant flaring has been observed in the last 48 hours. Stay tuned for updates. Credit: Space Weather Prediction Center
01/09 - STORMY SPACE WEATHER: Giant sunspot AR1944 is directly facing Earth and crackling with solar flares. Yesterday, Jan. 7th, an X1-class explosion in the sunspot's magnetic canopy hurled a CME in our direction. Sky watchers shoud be alert for auroras on Jan. 9th when the cloud arrives. NOAA forecasters estimate a 60% chance of strong geomagnetic storms. The X1-flare that hurled the CME toward Earth also accelerated a swarm of high- energy protons in our direction. Effects of the proton fusillade are visible in this Jan. 7th coronagraph movie from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO): (can be viewed today at spaceweather.com). The "snow" in this movie is caused by solar protons striking the spacecraft's CCD camera. A veritable blizzard of speckles develops as the CME emerges into full view. Indeed, many of the protons are accelerated by shock waves at the forefront of the expanding cloud. This ongoing radiation storm ranks S2 on NOAA storm scales. It is rich in "hard" protons with more than 100 MeV of energy, which accounts for the snowiness of the SOHO coronagraph images. According to NOAA, "passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft at high latitudes may be exposed to elevated radiation risk" during such a storm. The source of all this activity is AR1944, one of the biggest sunspots of the past decade. The sprawling active region is more than 200,000 km wide and contains dozens of dark cores. Its primary core, all by itself, is large enough to swallow Earth three times over. More flares are in the offing. The sunspot has an unstable 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that is likely to erupt again today. Credit: Spaceweather.com
ROCKET LAUNCH FOILED BY SOLAR ACTIVITY: Orbital Sciences Corp. scrubbed today's launch of their Antares supply rocket to the International Space Station in response to an ongoing solar radiation storm, described above. A launch at 1:10 p.m. EST Thursday is possible if the storm subsides. Credit: spaceweather.com
01/09 - 2014-01-09 00:03 UTC S3 (Strong) Solar Radiation Storm In Progress
The ongoing S2 (Moderate) Solar Radiation Storm has intensified to an S3 (Strong) event as of 2320 UTC (6:20 p.m. EST) today, January 8. Protons should stay at this same approximate level for the next few hours, then likely take another jump with the passage of the shock ahead of the CME, expected to occur around 0900 UTC (4:00 a.m. EST) tomorrow, January 9. However, this increase is not expected to exceed the S3 level. The CME is forecast to set off G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storm activity through January 9 and 10. Aurora watchers should be ready; updates here as things unfold. Credit: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/
01/07 - 2014-01-07 22:11 UTC CME Impacts Expected January 9
SWPC Forecasters are anticipating G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storm conditions to occur on January 9, followed by G1 (Minor) levels January 10. The source of this pulse is an Earth-directed CME launched from centrally-located Region 1944 at 1832 UTC (1:32 p.m. EST) today January 7. This forecast is pending the acquisition of some data as yet unavailable, and may be updated. In addition, the current S1 (Minor) Solar Radiation Storm is likely to linger for another 24 hours. At the Sun, Region 1944 remains well-placed and energetic. Watch here for more as conditions warrant. Credit: Space Weather Prediction Center
01/07 - X-Flare Update and Second Proton Event AR1944 - Second Flare Erupts from Sunspot AR1944 - this was an X-Class Flare following a M-5 (ALMOST X-Flare) with a Second Proton Event that followed. Please visit our SWPC Alerts Page for details on these events and stay tuned for updates.
01/07 - X-FLARE, Proton Event, and R3 Radio Event: Giant sunspot AR1944 erupted on Jan 7th at approximately 1832 UT, producing a powerful X1-class solar flare. First-look coronagraph images from the STEREO-Ahead spacecraft appear to show a coronal mass ejection (CME) emerging from the blast site. If so, the CME is almost certainly heading for Earth. Stay tuned for updates as more data arrive from the NASA-ESA Heliophysics Fleet. Credit: Spaceweather.com
2014-01-07 18:37 UTC R3 (Strong) Event from Region 1944
Region 1944, the respectably large region now near center disk, produced a R3 (Strong) Solar Flare Radio Blackout event at 1832 UTC (1:32 p.m. EST) on January 7th, following a R2 (Moderate) event earlier in the day. Forecasters are currently awaiting coronograph imagery to assess the coronal mass ejections associated with these events. Once that imagery is available and forecasters are able to model these eruptions, a geomagnetic storm forecast will be forthcoming. This latest eruption could also keep the S1 (Minor) Radiation Storm that was in decay in progress. Stay tuned for updates. Credit: SWPC
01/07 - 2014-01-07 15:12 UTC R2 (Moderate) Activity, CME Arrival...
Region 1944, the respectably large region now at center disk, produced a R2 (Moderate) Solar Flare Radio Blackout event at 1013 UTC (5:13 a.m. EST) on January 7th, its first R2 event since rotating into view nearly a week ago. Although forecasters are currently awaiting imagery to see the coronal mass ejection (CME) that may have been associated with this event, a significant CME is not expected given the short-lived nature of this flare and the lack of other indicators of a significant CME (radio bursts, etc.).
Additionally, the arrival of the CME associated with a R1 (Minor) event late on the 4th has been observed at the ACE spacecraft. This disturbance is expected to bring G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming for the 7th. Stay tuned for updates. Credit: Space Weather Prediction Center
01/06 - INCOMING CME: A CME is heading toward Earth. The incoming cloud (movie) was hurled into space by an M4-class explosion from sunspot AR1944 on Jan. 4th and is expected to deliver a glancing blow to our planet's magnetic field on Jan. 7th. Minor to moderate geomagnetic storms are possible when the CME arrives.
RADIATION STORM IN PROGRESS: Energetic solar protons are streaming past Earth today, triggering an S1-class solar radiation storm. They were propelled toward us by an explosion in the magnetic canopy of old sunspot AR1936. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory recorded the blast (which can be viewed today at spaceweather.com). Play the movie again. The snowy speckles dancing around the image are caused by energetic protons striking the coronagraph's digital camera. They are a sign that a radiation storm is underway.
Although this radiation storm is classified as S1, that is, minor, it is fairly rich in high energy particles that can temporarily "snow" (degrade the performance of) space-based cameras. NOAA forecasters expect the storm to continue for another day or so. Stay tuned for updates.
GIANT SUNSPOT TURNS TOWARD EARTH: Watch this movie. One of the largest sunspots in years is turning toward Earth: AR1944 has a 'beta- gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for potent eruptions. NOAA forecasters estimate a 75% chance of M-class flares and a 30% chance of X-flares on Jan. 6th. Any flares today will almost certainly be geoeffective. Credit: Spaceweather.com
01/05 - Growing sunspot AR1944 has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI
01/05 - INCOMING CME, UPDATED: A coronal mass ejection (CME) is heading for Earth. The cloud raced away from the sun during the late hours of Jan 4th following a long-duration M4-class solar flare from big sunspot AR1944. SOHO (the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory) recorded the explosion (which can be viewed today at spaceweather.com). The assymetric CME is expected to deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field on Jan. 7th, possibly sparking G1-class geomagnetic storms on Jan. 7th and 8th. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras. Credit: spaceweather.com
01/05 - CME, POSSIBLY TWO MAY BE INCOMING: A coronal mass ejection (CME) might be heading for Earth. The cloud blasted away from the sun during the late hours of Jan 4th following a long-duration M4-class solar flare from big sunspot AR1944. SOHO (the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory) recorded the explosion: (video can be viewed today at spaceweather.com). The assymetric CME could deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field on January 7th, possibly sparking G1-class geomagnetic storms. NOAA analysts are still processing the CME imagery for a more precise forecast. Watch the movie again. There might be two CMEs in there. After the first cloud from sunspot AR1944 emerged, a second cloud was propelled off the sun's western limb by departing sunspot AR1936. The mixture of CMEs complicates analysis of this event. Stay tuned for updates. Credit: Spaceweather.com
01/05 - FLARES LIKELY TODAY: Giant sunspot AR1944 has developed a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for potent Earth-directed eruptions. NOAA forecasters estimate a 75% chance of M-class flares and a 30% chance of X-flares on Jan. 5th. Credit: Spaceweather.com
01/03 - SMALL ASTEROID HITS EARTH: Newly-discovered asteroid 2014 AA hit Earth's atmosphere on Jan. 2nd. The space rock, about the size of a small car, disintegrated over the Atlantic Ocean about 3,000 km east of Caracas, Venezuela. Infrasound records interpreted by Peter Brown of the University of Western Ontario suggest an impact energy between 500 and 1,000 tons of TNT. That's a lot of dynamite; nevertheless, in cosmic terms this was a relatively minor impact that did no damage to our planet. Credit: Spaceweather.com
(EMP REPORT AUTHOR'S NOTE: to a few of you that I spoke with a few days ago, you know that I had a dream NYE about back to back asteroids hitting here, we were okay but lots of chaos, uncanny the similarities of the event, glad it was one and not two in this event, and even more glad that damage did not occur THIS time..I will share with all, that I see more coming...I dont know a time frame, and due to the hazmat suits and gas masks that were seen in the dream, and through collaboration with close scientists friends of mine, these asteroids are cancerous and dangerous (hazmat suits will not protect against), NASA is not going to share this with you, but I will...Namaste Friends...)
01/03 - 2014-01-03 16:40 UTC Keeping a Close Eye on Region 1944...
Region 1936, the region responsible for the recent R2 (Moderate) Solar Flare Radio Blackout activity, is now approaching the limb and will rotate out of view shortly. Region 1944, one of the largest sunspot groups observed to date in solar cycle 24, is now clearly visible on the disc. Region 1944 has been relatively stable in size and shows a relatively modest magnetic complexity, but that said, a region of this size certainly has the potential to produce significant activity. Updates here as conditions warrant. Credit: Space Weather Prediction Center
01/03 - BIG SUNSPOT, CHANCE OF FLARES: Sunspot AR1944, which emerged over the sun's eastern limb on Jan. 1st, is big and potentially dangerous. The complex region contains more than a dozen dark cores, and the leading spot is big enough to swallow two planet Earths all by itself. AR1944 is so large, sky watchers on Earth are beginning to notice it as a blemish on the solar disk at sunset: (can be viewed at spaceweather.com). "This was my first sunset shot of the year," says photographer Raymund Sarmiento of Quezon City, the Philippines. "AR1944 is circled. That sunspot has the potential to disrupt transmission/reception of radio signals on the foreground antenna." Indeed, the sunspot has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for strong eruptions. NOAA forecasters estimate a 75% for M-flares and 30% for X-flares on Jan. 3rd. The effect of any flares today will be mitigated by the fact that the sunspot is not yet directly facing Earth. However, even an off-center blast from this behemoth could produce radio blackouts and geomagnetic activity. Stay tuned for developments. Credit: Spaceweather.com
01/02 - Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 2098
Issue Time: 2014 Jan 02 1911 UTC
ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Threshold Reached: 2014 Jan 02 1855 UTC
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.
01/02 - GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A minor (Kp=5) geomagnetic storm is in progress on Jan. 2nd in response to a solar wind stream, which is buffeting Earth's magnetosphere. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras. Credit: Spaceweather.com
2014-01-02 21:34 UTC G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storming
The solar wind is now showing signs of a high-speed stream, resulting in G1 (Minor) conditions. Back at the Sun, both Regions 1936 (departing) and 1944 (arriving) remain potent and possibly eruptive. Watch for news of changing conditions here. Credit: Space Weather Prediction Center
01/01 - 2014-01-01 21:14 UTC Recent Flares (R2 - Moderate) and other activity
Region 1936, although relatively modest in size, has produced two R2 (Moderate) Solar Flare Radio Blackouts to date. Both of these events were relatively impulsive or short-lived, so no significant radiation or geomagnetic storm activity is currently expected as a result. Another fairly large sunspot group, Region 1944, is just now rotating into view. Between these two regions, continued activity is certainly possible. Unrelated to this flare activity, G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on January 2nd from a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Stay tuned for updates. Credit: SWPC
01/01 - SOLAR ACTIVITY IS HIGH: 2014 began with a bang. At 18:54 UT on January 1st, big sunspot AR1936 erupted, producing a strong M9-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured the explosion's extreme ultraviolet flash (can be viewed today at spaceweather.com) The movie shows a dark filament of plasma racing away from the blast site, but most of the material fell back to the stellar surface. Nevertheless, the explosion did produce a CME that could deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field later this week. NOAA analysts are still evaluating this possibility.
The M9-flare of New Year's Day followed close on the heels of an M6-flare on New Year's Eve. Sunspot AR1936 produced both explosions. The New Year's Eve event produced a minor, slow-moving CME that is not expected to disturb Earth's magnetic field if and when it does arrive.
Sunspot AR1936 is active, but new sunspot AR1944 looks even more potent. The behemoth active region emerged over the sun's southeastern limb on Jan 1st (available photo at spaceweather.com). Because of foreshortening near the sun's limb, the complexity of AR1944's magnetic field is still unknown. The sheer size of the sunspot, however, suggests it is capable of strong flares. The emergence of AR1944 combined with the ongoing activity from AR1936 has prompted NOAA forecasters to raise the odds of eruptions on Jan. 2nd to 70% for M-flares and 30% for X-flares. Credit: Spaceweather.com
12/30 - Sunspots AR1934 and AR1936 have complex magnetic fields that harbor energy for M- and X-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI
12/30 - COMING SOON--THE FIRST AURORAS OF 2014: Magnetic fields in the sun's northern hemisphere have opened up, creating a vast hole in the sun's atmosphere--a coronal hole. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory is monitoring the UV-dark gap (this can be viewed today at spaceweather.com). Coronal holes are places where magnetic fields threading through the sun's atmosphere spread apart and allow solar wind to escape. A stream of solar wind flowing from this particular coronal hole could reach Earth on Jan. 2-3, possibly sparking polar geomagnetic storms. The first auroras of 2014 are in the offing. Credit: Spaceweather.com
12/30 - SUBSIDING PROTONS, MORE TO COME? Energetic protons are swarming past Earth in the aftermath of a magnetic explosion on the sun's western limb on Dec. 28th: movie. At its peak, the radiation storm registered "S1" on NOAA storm scales, which is to say it was a minor event with minimal effects on Earth-orbiting satellites and aviation. The storm is subsiding now. Stronger radiation storms are possible in the days ahead, however, as potent sunspot AR1934 rotates toward the western limb--a place with a strong magnetic connection to Earth. Flares from AR1934 could send more protons in our direction. Credit: Spaceweather.com
12/29 - INCREASING CHANCE OF FLARES: Sunspots AR1934 and AR1936 have grown significantly in the past 24 hours, each more than doubling in area as dozens of new dark cores add themselves to the two active regions. Click on the image to review the developments: (can be viewed at spaceweather.com). Sunspot AR1934 has developed a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for powerful X-class solar flares. Sunspot AR1936 has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for lesser M-class flares. Nevertheless, AR1936 poses the greater threat to Earth because it is directly facing our planet. Indeed, an M3-class flare from this sunspot on Dec. 29th created a wave of ionization in the upper atmosphere over Asia, the Middle East and eastern Europe. More flares are in the offing, so stay tuned. - Credit: Spaceweather.com
12/29 - SUBSIDING RADIATION STORM: An S1-class solar radiation storm that began on Dec. 28th is subsiding. The storm was sparked by a magnetic explosion near the sun's western limb, which accelerated solar protons toward Earth. Our planet is now exiting the swarm of energetic particles. Credit: Spaceweather.com
12/28 - MINOR RADIATION STORM IN PROGRESS: Energetic protons are swarming around Earth on Dec. 28th following a magnetic eruption near the western limb of the sun: movie. The ongoing radiation storm ranks S1 on NOAA storm scales, which means it is a relatively minor storm with little effect on spacecraft and high-altitude aviation. Credit: Spaceweather.com
12/28 - CRACKLING SUNSPOT: AR1936 is waking up. The sunspot has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for strong eruptions, yet it has been quiet for days. Now AR1936 is beginning to crackle with flares. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash from an almost-M-class flare at 1800 UT on Dec. 28th (can be viewed at spaceweather.com)
Because the sunspot is facing Earth, any flares emanating from it are going to be geoeffective. So far, the extreme ultraviolet "crackles" have produced only minor waves of ionization in our planet's upper atmosphere. Earth-effects will increase, however, if the activity continues to intensify. Stay tuned! Credit: Spaceweather.com
12/24 - 6-foot tsunami that hit near New Jersey nuclear plant (in June 2013) may be first of its kind in U.S. — People injured, swept out to sea by wave detected as far as Puerto Rico — NOAA said continental shelf may have slumped, now suspects ‘atmospheric event’ (VIDEO)
EMP REPORT ANNOUNCEMENT: To those of you who were following us on our Linked In Group (Advanced Survival Technology) back in May/June of 2013 - you know that we issued the first ever Tsunami Risk Advisory Alert in May (for this time frame, specifically around June 2, 2013 - which we then extended as we knew that due to the built up energy from solar events in Mid May , this had increased the risk dramatically for a tsunami event in the North Atlantic) (that I still keep on the "manager's choice" here for those who were not yet following us.) The most ridiculous part of this is that NO media attention was given to this event when the 6 ft Tsunami wave hit the NJ coast - was it because we had warned of this in advance and no one wanted to give the attention of what we predicted and the risk we advised of?
Thank you to the media outlets who FINALLY published this information...it only took a few weeks (and then months) for additional media outlets to make mention of this event, which was first disclosed through a small town media outlet in Cape Cod....(absurd!), anywhere else in the world this would have been on the front page the day after it happened - we can only hope that in the future (as we are predicting the increased risk of a similar event in spring of next year again in the Atlantic), more will listen to our advisories! Thank you to our Advanced Forecasting Technologies partnership (specifically Dr. Simon Atkins) for providing this crucial and critical information. We will update more as we deem appropriate for potential events in Spring 2014.
12/23 - CHANCE OF FLARES: Big sunspot AR1928 is crackling with M-class solar flares. Magnetic fields spiraling away from the sunspot's location on the sun's western limb are well-connected to Earth, raising the possibility of a radiation storm around our planet if the flares intensify. NOAA forecasters estimate a 60% chance of M-class flares and a 10% chance of X-class flares on Dec. 23rd. Credit: Spaceweather.com
12/19 - M-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: For more than two weeks, solar activity has been low. Hours ago, a new sunspot broke the quiet with an M3.5-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash at 23:16 UT on Dec. 19th. Radiation from the flare produced a brief wave of ionization in the upper atmosphere over the Pacific side of Earth. Otherwise, the blast was not particularly geoeffective. It did not produce an Earth-directed CME. The instigating sunspot is still emerging over the sun's southeastern limb. Without a top-down view of the sunspot's magnetic field, it is difficult to assess the region's flare-producing potential. NOAA forecasters are guestimating a 30% chance of more M-class flares on Dec. 20th. - Credit: Spaceweather.com
12/18 - EMP Report OPINION: Is "Gaia" also going to be studying the wave of electromagnetic energy moving in toward Earth's direction (some may call this a "pulsar type event")... or is she just "mapping stars"?
12/15 - CHANCE OF STORMS: NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on Dec. 15th when a pair of CMEs could deliver rapid- fire glancing blows to Earth's magnetic field. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras mixed with bright moonlight. - Credit: Spaceweather.com
12/13 - INCOMING CMES, CHANCE OF STORMS - Yesterday, December 12th, a pair of magnetic filaments on the sun erupted in quick succession between 0300 UT and 0630 UT. The explosions hurled a pair of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) into space. SOHO recorded the clouds racing away from the sun at approximately 1.1 million mph (500 km/s) (video can be viewed today at spaceweather.com).
Although neither explosion was squarely Earth-directed, the two clouds could deliver glancing blows to Earth's magnetic field on Dec. 14th or (more likely) the 15th. NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of polar geomagnetic storms when the clouds arrive. - Credit: spaceweather.com
12/12 - Space Weather Prediction Center Alerts for December 12, 2013
Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP4
Serial Number: 440
Issue Time: 2013 Dec 12 0417 UTC
ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2013 Dec 12 0318 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.
Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 897
Issue Time: 2013 Dec 12 0838 UTC
ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2013 Dec 12 0316 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 511 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.
12/11 - CORONAL HOLE: NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory is monitoring a large coronal hole in the sun's northern hemisphere. Shown here in an extreme ultraviolet photo taken during the early hours of Dec. 11th, the UV-dark chasm overlies more than 500 billion square kilometers of solar terrain: (photo can be viewed at spaceweather.com)
Coronal holes are places in the sun's atmosphere where the magnetic field opens up and allows solar wind to escape. A broad stream of solar wind flowing from this particular coronal hole should reach Earth on Dec. 15-17.
The last time a solar wind stream blew past Earth, on Dec. 7th, the impact sparked Northern Lights in the United States as far south as Montana and Michigan. A repeat performance could be in the offing. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras early next week. - Credit: Spaceweather.com
12/08 - COMET LOVEJOY'S ACTIVE TAIL: Amateur astronomers around the northern hemisphere are reporting activity in the tail of naked-eye Comet Lovejoy (C/2013 R1). In Nagano, Japan, astrophotographer Kouji Ohnishi could see big changes in less than an hour of monitoring: (photos can be viewed at spaceweather.com)
Michael Jäger saw the same "disconnection event" from his observatory in Masenberg, Austria, on Dec. 5th. The disturbance could be caused by a gust of solar wind or perhaps an episode of vigorous outgassing in the comet's core.
Comet Lovejoy is now about as bright as a 4th magnitude star. It is visible to the unaided eye from the countryside and is an easy target for backyard telescopes even in urban areas. Monitoring is encouraged. Comet Lovejoy rises in the east just before the morning sun. - Credit: Spaceweather.com
12/08 - (A Strong) GEOMAGNETIC STORM--NOW! (Do we have any correlation here between the debris tail of Comet LOVEJOY and ISON??)
(I have to ask why we have not heard anything from NASA regarding our pass through ISON's debris tail coming in January 2014...maybe it was decided that as long as the news was shared almost a year ago, April 2013 to be exact, that many of us have forgotten the article...
Comet ISON Meteor Shower - Credit: NASA.gov
- the main reason I cannot bring myself to posts the ridiculous and illusion-filled main media sources outlining "Ison's death"...we are just getting started folks - encouraging independent research on this, there is more than meets the eye, more information to come on this soon!)
Now back to the latest from SWPC and Spaceweather.com...
GEOMAGNETIC STORM--NOW! A geomagnetic storm (Kp=6) is in progress on Dec. 7-8 as Earth enters a stream of fast-moving solar wind. High- latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras - Credit: Spacweather.com
2013-12-08 02:37 UTC Moderate Geomagnetic Storming Underway
Earth is now under the influence of a stronger than expected coronal hole high speed stream. G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storming has been observed and continued low-level storming is possible over the next 24 hours as Earth remains under the influence of this high speed solar wind. Stay tuned for updates.
Additional Alert information from Space Weather Prediction Center -
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK06
Serial Number: 314
Issue Time: 2013 Dec 08 0224 UTC
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2013 Dec 08 0217 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state. - Credit: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/warnings_timeline.html